This satellite image obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Hurricane Beryl on July 3, 2024, at 12:40 GMT, approaching Jamaica. (Photo: AFP)
ST GEORGE’S, Grenada (CMC) — Regional forecasters Thursday predicted a “potentially intense, but erratic” 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, saying the frequency of Saharan dust will affect cyclone formation even as they noted that storms could form between these dust episodes, as had been the case with Hurricane Beryl in July last year.
“So there’s no two ways about it. You’ve heard it already: The headline is a potentially intense but erratic season ahead,” Cédric Van Meerbeeck, climatologist at the Barbados-based Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) said at the 2025 Wet/Hurricane Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum taking place in Grenada through Friday.
Van Meerbeeck says CIHM has 70 per cent confidence in its forecast that there will be 19 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and four of them major hurricanes, but noted that the forecast will be updated later in the hurricane season.
He noted that the annual average is 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three major hurricanes, during the season that runs from June 1 to November 30.
Van Meerbeeck noted the forecast of other agencies, including AccuWeather, whose March 26 outlook has forecast 13-18 named storms, including 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
Colorado State University (CSU) said on April 3 that it has 70 per cent confidence that 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes will form this season.
In its April 7 outlook, the United Kingdom (UK) based Tropical Storm Risk forecasted 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The United States (US) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center was expected to release its forecast later on Thursday.
“So what do we see? The average is 14, and most of the ranges of forecasts are at least at that average level. That’s not very good news,” Van Meerbeeck said, adding that a warm Atlantic Ocean is the main reason.
He, however, said that the Atlantic Ocean is not as warm this year as it was in 2024 when it was “record warm”.
“So our forecast would be a little bit lower than the forecast last year,” Van Meerbeeck, adding that when CIMH speaks of “a potentially intense” hurricane season, it means “it’s going to be active and very active at some point in time — but erratic if there’s a lot of dust”.
Van Meerbeeck noted that multiple credible agencies release forecasts as the hurricane season advances, adding that all of the forecasts released so far suggest that cyclone activity during the 2025 hurricane season would be “slightly above the average”.
“That doesn’t mean that everyone produces exactly the same forecast, but it does show a tendency that all of us are quite confident it’s not going to be an inactive season. It’s not going to be one of those seasons that causes less worry.”
Van Meerbeeck emphasised that Saharan air layer intrusions are a major unknown, even as they affect cyclonic activities, as forecasters are only able to predict the dust intrusion one or two weeks in advance.
“Again, what we do not know is how often those intrusions of Saharan air layer will come into the Caribbean and therefore stifle the activity levels,” Van Meerbeeck said.
“But…in between episodes of dust, of dusty Saharan air layer, you can have a boom if there’s enough heat in the ocean and the atmosphere is not adverse to the development of storms. It can come like that, and that’s exactly what Beryl did last year.”
He, however, noted that Beryl was also the product of the record-warm temperatures in the Atlantic.
“So our hopes are that the risk of such an explosive hurricane development is a little bit reduced compared to last year…
“You know that if you have less dust that means a progressive uptick of the hurricane season. If there’s a lot of dust, it means erratic for the first half.”
He pointed out that in 2024, Saharan dust layers stifled hurricane activity through August.
“So that’s why we had those episodes without any activity during part of the month of July and a lot of most of the month of August…
“Now, I don’t need to say this in Grenada, I don’t need to say this in the Bahamas. I don’t need to say that anywhere in the Caribbean: one storm is enough to be a disastrous season. We all know that.”